Monday, February 05, 2007

Pythagorean Expectation

I found this article recently, which combines 2 enjoyable past times: football and statistics. Unfortunately it is getting pretty late so I haven't delved too deeply into it, and some of it looks pretty complicated, measuring stats like DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) and OVOA (offense-adjusted value over average). And I know what you're thinking, please tell me more! Well, I'll get back to that later since those stats will require more research. Never fear though, there is more. The stat that really caught my attention was the pythagorean expectation. This stat is derived from a baseball formula that estimates the number of wins a team should have based on the square of the ratio of runs scored to runs allowed. From this we can infer that a team that wins more games than expected is lucky, and sooner or later luck will catch up with them, most likely in the playoffs. Now putting this into practice, this site shows that the Seahawks should have won 7.824 wins. Of course, according to these calculations, it should have been Baltimore beating Chicago in the Superbowl. So perhaps it all means nothing, but it's still interesting, and before the next fantasy football season starts, I'm going to investigate further.

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